THE PREDICTION EXPERIMENT

Let the results decide.

Eight frozen agent profiles and two frequency models face uniform random selection. Predictions are locked before the draw. The endpoint and success threshold stay fixed.

Collector health

Collector Healthy Last success: 2026-10-11 11:05 UTC
Backup Recent backup 2026-10-11 04:20 UTC
Independent timestamps Verified 64 verified · 0 pending commitments

Health checked: 2026-10-11 11:08 UTC. A heartbeat or successful collection older than 15 minutes is stale. 0 consecutive failures; 0 active alerts.

Result sourceLast successful fetchLatest published drawFetch status
NY Numbers2026-10-11 11:05 UTC2026-10-10 eveningRecent
NY Win 42026-10-11 11:05 UTC2026-10-10 eveningRecent

Verified timestamp receipts provide independent evidence that a commitment existed by the authority's stated time. They rely on trust in that authority and its clock. They do not prove predictive skill or guarantee a winning ticket. Pending receipts are not yet verified.

Running

Snapshot: 2026-10-11 11:05 UTC. All times below are UTC.

64of 400 draws committed
60draws scored
0missed commitments
0protocol issues

The fixed finish line

Started 2026-09-26 03:42 UTC. Endpoint: 2027-01-04 03:42 UTC. Outstanding results are due by 2027-01-11 03:42 UTC.

At the endpoint, each model and session needs cumulative log evidence of at least 6.684612 (e-value 800.0) across 40 planned comparisons.

Every scheduled draw must be committed on time, dated by an independent timestamp receipt before its deadline, and scored. Missing commitments, missing receipts or unresolved outcomes make the experiment inconclusive. Interim scores do not declare a winner or change the rules.

Registered code: tag prediction-v2-20260926b, commit 4a2bd287f3cf.

Locked predictions

NY Numbers · midday

2026-10-11 midday · Upcoming

Draw: 2026-10-11 18:30 UTC
Lock deadline: 2026-10-11 18:00 UTC
Committed: 2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Training known through: 2026-10-09 midday

Agent / modelTicket
Axiom028
Blaze703
Cipher528
Echo594
Frost625
Joker680
Maverick895
Sage367
Frequency985
Recent frequency023
Uniform random693

NY Win 4 · midday

2026-10-11 midday · Upcoming

Draw: 2026-10-11 18:30 UTC
Lock deadline: 2026-10-11 18:00 UTC
Committed: 2026-10-10 18:00 UTC
Training known through: 2026-10-09 midday

Agent / modelTicket
Axiom3927
Blaze7453
Cipher8450
Echo1502
Frost8504
Joker1674
Maverick7269
Sage2589
Frequency1380
Recent frequency1464
Uniform random5560

NY Numbers · evening

2026-10-11 evening · Upcoming

Draw: 2026-10-12 02:30 UTC
Lock deadline: 2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Committed: 2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
Training known through: 2026-10-09 evening

Agent / modelTicket
Axiom907
Blaze153
Cipher852
Echo237
Frost250
Joker139
Maverick015
Sage985
Frequency582
Recent frequency056
Uniform random352

NY Win 4 · evening

2026-10-11 evening · Upcoming

Draw: 2026-10-12 02:30 UTC
Lock deadline: 2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Committed: 2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
Training known through: 2026-10-09 evening

Agent / modelTicket
Axiom0573
Blaze8462
Cipher5608
Echo5287
Frost7835
Joker0936
Maverick6852
Sage5641
Frequency1649
Recent frequency5815
Uniform random7363

Official results

StreamDrawWinning digitsScored at
NY Win 4 · evening2026-10-10 evening83442026-10-11 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · evening2026-10-10 evening9232026-10-11 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · midday2026-10-10 midday62642026-10-11 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · midday2026-10-10 midday5062026-10-11 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · evening2026-10-09 evening86262026-10-10 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · evening2026-10-09 evening7502026-10-10 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · midday2026-10-09 midday62792026-10-10 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · midday2026-10-09 midday1332026-10-10 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · evening2026-10-08 evening48592026-10-09 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · evening2026-10-08 evening7942026-10-09 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · midday2026-10-08 midday98742026-10-09 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · midday2026-10-08 midday5492026-10-09 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · evening2026-10-07 evening19152026-10-08 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · evening2026-10-07 evening3612026-10-08 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · midday2026-10-07 midday17822026-10-08 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · midday2026-10-07 midday2412026-10-08 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · evening2026-10-06 evening68142026-10-07 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · evening2026-10-06 evening8862026-10-07 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · midday2026-10-06 midday74222026-10-07 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · midday2026-10-06 midday0282026-10-07 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · evening2026-10-05 evening95942026-10-06 09:10 UTC
NY Numbers · evening2026-10-05 evening5462026-10-06 09:10 UTC
NY Win 4 · midday2026-10-05 midday34342026-10-06 09:10 UTC
NY Numbers · midday2026-10-05 midday1822026-10-06 09:10 UTC
NY Win 4 · evening2026-10-04 evening53452026-10-05 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · evening2026-10-04 evening9912026-10-05 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · midday2026-10-04 midday20992026-10-05 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · midday2026-10-04 midday0942026-10-05 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · evening2026-10-03 evening06162026-10-04 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · evening2026-10-03 evening8572026-10-04 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · midday2026-10-03 midday21022026-10-04 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · midday2026-10-03 midday4772026-10-04 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · evening2026-10-02 evening80502026-10-03 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · evening2026-10-02 evening8562026-10-03 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · midday2026-10-02 midday05532026-10-03 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · midday2026-10-02 midday0212026-10-03 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · evening2026-10-01 evening78152026-10-02 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · evening2026-10-01 evening6462026-10-02 09:05 UTC
NY Win 4 · midday2026-10-01 midday34652026-10-02 09:05 UTC
NY Numbers · midday2026-10-01 midday7012026-10-02 09:05 UTC

Latest 40 recorded results.

Evidence against uniform selection

Positive log evidence favors the model; negative values favor uniform selection. Exact ticket hits and matched positions are descriptive, not the success test.

StreamAgent / modelDrawsLog evidenceMean log gainExact hitsPosition hitsEndpoint signal
NY Numbers · eveningUniform random15+0.0000+0.000002None declared
NY Numbers · eveningFrequency15-0.2391-0.015904None declared
NY Numbers · eveningRecent frequency15-0.1997-0.013305None declared
NY Numbers · eveningBlaze15-1.7524-0.116804None declared
NY Numbers · eveningFrost15-2.4996-0.166603None declared
NY Numbers · eveningCipher15-1.0052-0.067005None declared
NY Numbers · eveningSage15-2.4996-0.166603None declared
NY Numbers · eveningJoker15-0.2579-0.017206None declared
NY Numbers · eveningEcho15+1.2365+0.082418None declared
NY Numbers · eveningAxiom15-1.0052-0.067005None declared
NY Numbers · eveningMaverick15-2.4996-0.166603None declared
NY Numbers · middayUniform random15+0.0000+0.000005None declared
NY Numbers · middayFrequency15+0.1642+0.010904None declared
NY Numbers · middayRecent frequency15-0.3890-0.025906None declared
NY Numbers · middayBlaze15-3.2468-0.216502None declared
NY Numbers · middayFrost15+0.4893+0.032607None declared
NY Numbers · middayCipher15-1.7524-0.116804None declared
NY Numbers · middaySage15-3.9940-0.266301None declared
NY Numbers · middayJoker15-0.2579-0.017206None declared
NY Numbers · middayEcho15+0.4893+0.032607None declared
NY Numbers · middayAxiom15-1.7524-0.116804None declared
NY Numbers · middayMaverick15-1.0052-0.067005None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningUniform random15+0.0000+0.000006None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningFrequency15+0.0487+0.0032010None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningRecent frequency15+1.1778+0.078508None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningBlaze15-1.8383-0.122606None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningFrost15-0.3439-0.022908None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningCipher15-5.5744-0.371601None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningSage15+0.4033+0.026909None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningJoker15+1.8977+0.1265011None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningEcho15-2.5856-0.172405None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningAxiom15-4.8272-0.321802None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningMaverick15-0.3439-0.022908None declared
NY Win 4 · middayUniform random15+0.0000+0.000002None declared
NY Win 4 · middayFrequency15-1.5661-0.104402None declared
NY Win 4 · middayRecent frequency15-0.6124-0.040808None declared
NY Win 4 · middayBlaze15-2.5856-0.172405None declared
NY Win 4 · middayFrost15-4.0800-0.272003None declared
NY Win 4 · middayCipher15+0.4033+0.026909None declared
NY Win 4 · middaySage15-1.8383-0.122606None declared
NY Win 4 · middayJoker15-2.5856-0.172405None declared
NY Win 4 · middayEcho15-5.5744-0.371601None declared
NY Win 4 · middayAxiom15-2.5856-0.172405None declared
NY Win 4 · middayMaverick15-0.3439-0.022908None declared

Agent scores use a fixed probability distribution centered on each locked ticket, not an agent's claimed confidence. These frozen profiles are separate from the evolving league. No automatic promotion occurs.